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Prediction market volume attributable to “takers”—recreational and retail traders who pull liquidity from exchanges—is forecast to reach $190 billion this year.
That estimate arrives courtesy of Macquarie and is well ahead of the research firm’s previous estimate of $169 billion in 2026 taker volume.
Takers is a prediction market industry colloquialism for the market participants that swiftly fill buy and sell orders, thus removing liquidity from the marketplace. Conversely, makers are the market participants viewed as liquidity providers and professional or sharp money.
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“It’s not that I want to collect taxes because I need the money. I want to collect taxes for the sake of fairness: if a company sells cars, it pays taxes; if it sells drinks, it pays taxes. If it’s authorised to operate, it has to pay.”
In the interview, the minister mentioned the tax changes proposed by the Ministry of Finance, and more recently, the ban on beneficiaries of social welfare programmes from gambling.
Durigan recalled that Lula has already made clear his discomfort with the cost and quality of life for people.
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The proposal does not explicitly prohibit the display of betting brands on team jerseys, but some city councillors want to include this in the bill.
Clubs fear the measure will jeopardise revenue from betting company sponsorships. Corinthians (Esportes da Sorte), Palmeiras (Sportingbet), and São Paulo (Superbet) alone hold contracts worth BRL350 million annually with betting firms.
One concern is the measure might force clubs to host matches outside the city to maintain their advertising agreements.
